10/12/2026
Market watch Monday on this Indigenous People Day - for this who are off work and out of school, enjoy the Fall-like weather!
Some thoughtful words from a Redwood broker, "This time last year, interest rates for 30-year fixed mortgages were approximately 6.30%, more than a full percentage point below where they are today. Inventory was approximately 20% lower but beginning to increase, while sales were approximately 8% higher. The prevailing sentiment was that the Northern Virginia real estate market was moving toward a more balanced, healthier market.
So, what happened?
By late February 2026, mortgage rates had fallen to just below 6%, their lowest level in several years. There were expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates several times during the year, potentially bringing greater stability to the economy and the real estate market. Optimism grew that conditions would continue to improve.
What we have experienced since late February, however, has been a significant reversal. Mortgage rates have climbed steadily, inventory has continued to rise, and buyers have more choices while exercising greater discernment before purchasing. Increased competition among sellers and buyers demanding value has put pressure on prices, with more sellers having to reconsider their pricing, presentation, and positioning.
What caused the shift? A combination of global geopolitical instability, persistent inflation, rising energy prices, and changing financial market conditions has contributed to higher borrowing costs and greater uncertainty. These forces, along with changing buyer and seller expectations, have influenced the market we are experiencing today.
Where does that leave us now?
This week's numbers offer an interesting perspective, particularly when compared to where we were a year ago.
-New Listings declined slightly, from 662 to 642, a drop of 3%. However, consistent with the year-over-year comparison
-New Listings were up 8% compared to the same week in 2025.
-Pendings remained flat at 174 week over week but experienced a steep decline of 30% from the 2025 number
-Closed Transactions fell from 607 to 403 following a surge the previous week and were down more than 20% from the same week last year.
-Active/Under Contract, a bright spot this week and indicative of continued buyer activity, rose 8.5%, from 306 to 332. Although still 19% below 2025, the increase is encouraging, particularly with mortgage rates reaching the mid-7% range.
Clearly, there are buyers who are finding reasons to act despite the challenges. The combination of Pendings and Active/Under Contract, which provides a look into future Closed Transactions, also improved by 5%, rising from 480 to 506.
Coming Soon declined 17%, from 197 to 163. While this might be an early indication of slower inventory growth, we must remember that New Listings came in at a healthy 642 for the week and more than 1,300 for October to date. Opportunity for buyers continues to improve.
Price Reductions and Back to Active both showed improvement, although they remain at elevated levels and warrant watching closely. Price Reductions fell from 591 to 583, while Back to Active declined from 135 to 123.
So, what does all of this tell us? Despite declines in several categories, there is still plenty of activity and opportunity in today's local real estate market. The opportunities haven't disappeared; they're evolving.
Buyers who remain engaged can take advantage of the options available to them, not just in terms of greater choice, but also the prices, terms, and conditions they may be able to negotiate that were less readily available in the more seller-centric market a year ago.
For sellers, the opportunity lies in understanding and responding to these changing conditions. Buyers are still buying, but they are more discerning and willing to wait for a property that offers the value they demand. Sellers who understand this and position their properties accordingly can distinguish themselves from competing listings.
Life circumstances continue to fuel market activity. There will always be people who need to sell and who need to buy, regardless of interest rates, the economy, or geopolitical issues."
If you are thinking of buying or selling - strategy is always key. Give us a call, email us at [email protected] or PM us Sandy Gardner Brill, Emily Miller & Mike Gardner.
