06/26/2026
On the surface, the U.S. job market looks stable, but Andrew Flowers, chief economist at Appcast, warns of underlying weakness that could surface in the months ahead. The U.S. added 139,000 jobs in May, beating expectations and down slightly from 147,000 in April, with unemployment holding at 4.2%. Flowers describes the market as treading water, noting that average monthly job gains over the past year were the lowest since 2011 outside of the pandemic. CNBC
The bigger concern is concentration. Most new positions have been coming from health care, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance. Federal funding cuts to health care, which has accounted for roughly 30% of new jobs in the past three years, plus tariff pressures on consumer-facing sectors, could undercut the very industries that have been carrying job growth. Flowers characterizes it as an insider-versus-outsider market: if you already have a job, conditions are decent, with low layoffs and strong wage growth. But the rate at which people are actually finding work is slipping, especially for entry-level and recent graduates. CNBC
There's also a structural mismatch worth flagging. Growth is weak around knowledge-worker jobs in finance, marketing, sales and software development, the same fields that college graduates were steered toward, while blue-collar roles are getting harder to fill. Broader signals echo the caution: the Fed reported the economy softened over roughly six weeks amid widespread policy uncertainty. CNBC
Suggestions for job seekers
Given that picture, a few practical moves:
If you're employed, weigh the value of staying put. Turnover is low and the "outsider" market is tougher than the headline numbers suggest, so the bar for jumping ship should be high right now.
Target the sectors still hiring, but with eyes open. Health care, hospitality, and social assistance remain the strongest, though health care faces policy headwinds worth monitoring before you commit to a long runway there.
Consider the skilled-trades gap. With blue-collar roles hard to fill and white-collar entry points crowded, certifications and trade skills are a genuine opportunity, not a fallback.
Move faster and apply earlier. Recruitment data shows the bulk of applications land within the first days of a posting, so speed matters. Lead with documented, quantifiable results rather than generic experience to stand out in a thin-hiring environment.
Network into roles rather than relying on open applications. In an insider market, warm introductions move you from outsider to insider far more reliably than cold applies.
