26/09/2024
𝗚𝗲𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝘆 in 𝗳𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝗳𝗮𝗹𝗹?
In his latest report, The Great Powers Index 2024, hedge fund manager Ray Dalio analyses the future prospects of major nations and forecasts their real GDP growth over the next 10 years, based on an assessment of 81 indicators including labor productivity, innovation, debt obligations and education.
Many advanced economies are expected to see slower growth as they grapple with their highest 𝗱𝗲𝗯𝘁 𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝘀 since World War II. Meanwhile, emerging markets are forecast to grow very strongly, fuelled by rising 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗱𝘂𝗰𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗶𝘁𝘆.
India is ranked first among the countries analysed, driven by robust investment, moderate workforce expansion, low debt levels and annual infrastructure spending of over $100 billion in the last 3 years. The country is projected to have the world’s 3rd largest economy by 2027, overtaking Japan and Germany.
The top 5 includes 3 Middle Eastern countries, led by the UAE, which stand out for their high growth per worker and strong productivity.
China, ranked 4th, has strong productivity growth as well as high growth per worker and is expected to see real GDP growth of 4% per year over the next 10 years.
The USA is forecast to see 1.4% annual GDP growth. The high debt level, which stands at 265% of GDP for the entire non-financial sector and 123% for government debt, is a burden. The USA's future productivity growth is predicted to be average. The promotion of AI and technological innovations are important factors for economic growth.
⏩ Why does 𝗚𝗲𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝘆 have to expect a loss of prosperity in the next 10 years?
In my opinion, important reasons are:
☉ Relatively high energy costs and high labour costs (on a quality-adjusted basis).
☉ Too many employees with weak work ethics, only moderate flexibility and insufficient performance.
☉ Too many populist pseudo-experts who are not and never have been real experts or leaders.
☉ Politicians without the necessary qualifications, who make decisions with far-reaching consequences.
☉ Established parties that have not provided solutions for years to important issues such as infrastructure, health, pensions, etc.
☉ Politicians who ‘preach water but drink champagne themselves’: waste of taxpayers' money, nepotism, acting as lobbyists for money and power, etc.
☉ Large fortunes and corporations for which Germany is a tax haven.
☉ Increased unequal treatment of population groups
☉ …
What is your opinion?
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